Archive photo. (Photo: Rajesh Jantilal/AFP)
Almost 28 million voters are registered to vote at this stage, with two more registration weekends to come in the run-up to this year’s local elections.
But how many of those 27.9 million voters will actually vote?
Two experts that Maroela Media spoke to this week in the run-up to the first registration weekend, place this year’s voting percentage at around 45%, similar to 2021’s local election.
“It is unlikely that the percentage will grow,” says Dirk Kotze, a professor of political science at Unisa, despite the optimism that prevailed there this week during the Electoral Commission’s (ECC) launch of the 2026 local elections.
Kotze believes that everything now depends on whether political parties can instill confidence in voters to vote on 4 November this year. “A big reason for those staying away is that they don’t trust political parties (through the bank),” he explains.
Kotze says political parties are therefore going to have to change this public perception by applying more internal democratic principles; nominate more suitable candidates by focusing on the merits and experience of candidates; acting internally against corruption, and stopping manipulation of internal electoral processes.
Argieffoto. (Photo: Marco Longari/AFP)
Not the voter’s fault
Dr. Frans Cronjé, head of the Social Research Foundation (SRF), says it is important to understand that the problem does not lie with the voter.
Cronjé tells Maroela Media that he gets irritated when some political analysts and parties argue that voters are apathetic. “Voters are not apathetic. They just do these days themselves what politicians can’t.”
“Why do people vote? People vote if they think their lives will improve when they draw that cross. There was a time when they thought their lives would improve if they voted ANC. This is no longer the case.”
However, according to Cronje, voters now struggle to believe that any other political party can offer them a better life and political parties struggle to convince them of that.
“To convince is the thing,” explains Cronje.
Kotze agrees.
“Most people know what the current situation is and therefore they know how important change is. But this must be weighed against the fact that they are not convinced that political parties can bring about that change.”
Archive photo. (Photo: Michele Spatari/AFP)
Cronje believes that it is more difficult these days to convince a voter, as many South Africans are now putting their hands in their own bosoms to improve their lives themselves after 30 years of failed government. “More and more people realize they have to take responsibility for their own circumstances.”
He believes that realization is much greater with this year’s election compared to previous election years.
“The problem with the debate is: An impression is created that the fault lies with the voter. Why? understand the voter doesn’t he have to show up then? But the problem does not lie with the voter,” explains Cronje.
“Voters go on with their lives, and do so quite successfully.
“People are not stupid. People realize that the state can no longer do it for them. They also realize that political parties can no longer do it for them – so now they do it themselves to a greater extent.
“That’s all that’s happening here now. It’s not that they’re apathetic.”
No mistake at OVK either
This year, the IEC places a strong focus on the young voter to get them to vote on 4 November.
“But it is not for the IEC to determine who will finally show up,” Cronje believes.
“This is a free, open and democratic society. If you can and want to vote, then you go. If you don’t vote, the fault is not with you or the IEC. If you don’t vote, the fault lies with the state and political parties.”
And when you look at the unemployment rate among young people, you will understand, Cronje believes.
According to the latest quarterly labor force survey, the unemployment rate among South Africans between the ages of 15 and 24 currently stands at 60.9%.
The rate stands at 40.6% for those between 25 and 34 years.
Archive photo. (Photo: Michele Spatari/AFP)
“The chance of such a guy turning up to vote is relatively less these days. And I think with good reason.”
Cronje believes politicians and even some analysts will have to realize that political parties are no longer the central role player when it comes to solutions. “They are an important player, but they are not necessarily the central player.
“Because that thing about what happens to me has to be decided in the Union Building is less true today than at any time in this country’s history.
“And it’s actually not a bad thing,” says Cronje.