Solly Msimanga, the DA’s Gauteng leader, and Helen Zille, the DA’s mayoral candidate for Johannesburg. (Photo: DA/X)
A new opinion poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) shows that the DA currently has the most support among registered voters in Gauteng.
According to the opinion poll, the DA in Gauteng currently enjoys 37% support, followed by the ANC on 31%.
The opinion poll puts ActionSA’s support in Gauteng at 7% and support for the EFF at 5%.
The political think tank SRF makes it very clear that the opinion poll is only a general indication of the relevant parties’ support in the run-up to November’s local elections. This is because the Gauteng sample is smaller than the national sample, which means that the provincial margin of error is higher.
Social Research Foundation polling conducted in the first quarter asked registered voters in Gauteng which party they would support if local government elections were held today. Among registered voters, the Democratic Alliance (DA) leads with 37%, followed by the African…
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The results should therefore be interpreted as only a general indication of support levels, rather than a precise estimate of the result in November, explains the think tank.
Registered voters in Gauteng were asked as part of the relevant opinion poll in the first quarter which party they would support if the election were held today.
It was found that the DA enjoys a narrow lead over the ANC in Gauteng.
(Photo: DA/X)
“But the difference is within the poll’s margin of error, which is higher for the provincial sample than for the national survey.”
According to the poll, ActionSA has modest support, “while the EFF remains a small competitor in this context”.
Prof. Theo Neethling, political analyst, says the DA and ANC are clearly the two biggest competitors in Gauteng. However, he also emphasizes that the poll only gives an indication of support.
“If you look at this survey and the parties’ previous achievements in Gauteng, they must be very close to each other,” he says.
The ANC gathered 35.5% support for him in Gauteng in the 2021 local elections. The DA got 27.9% of votes in the province.
“It is possible, in my opinion, that the DA has caught up with the ANC. What is happening especially in Johannesburg under Dada Morero’s mayorship is not good for the ANC. So the DA could possibly do better especially here.”
However, there are three metros in Gauteng with this year’s election in question: Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane. Neethling believes that in all three of these metros a different dynamic will possibly play out in November.
Nomvula Mokonyane, first deputy secretary general of the ANC, hangs an election poster. (Photo: ANC/X)
“Coalitions are ultimately going to make the difference and the coalitions can differ. In the end, you can say that the DA has probably moved closer to the ANC, because it doesn’t look like the ANC is going into the election in a good position.”
Cilliers Brink, the DA’s mayoral candidate in Tshwane, said in the run-up to registration weekend, which takes place this weekend, that there are currently an estimated 320,593 unregistered or incorrectly registered DA supporters in this metro alone.
“To put it in perspective, the ANC (in Tshwane) only received 234,521 votes in the local government elections of 2021.
“This means that the number of DA supporters who are not correctly registered to vote is significantly greater than the ANC’s entire voter base in Tshwane,” says Brink.
Pretoria East currently has the highest estimated number of unregistered or incorrectly registered DA supporters (59,445), followed by the Moot (47,594), Centurion (41,756), the north of Pretoria (35,104) and the city center (20,566).
The figures are based on the DA’s own data modelling.
“If every unregistered or incorrectly registered DA supporter in Tshwane registers and votes, that group of residents will ensure a DA majority government that provides reliable service delivery, safer communities, clean public spaces and an uninterrupted supply of water and electricity,” Brink said in the run-up to the weekend.
Cilliers Brink, the DA’s mayoral candidate in Tshwane. (Photo; Tania Heyns/Maroela Media)