The average maize price has been between R4 000 and R5 000 per tonne over the past three seasons. (Photo: Provided)
Pressures on farmers are increasing worldwide: from climate change and volatile markets to geopolitical tensions and rising input costs. Yet experts believe that innovation, technology and collaboration in the agricultural industry continue to create new opportunities.
This was one of the core messages at Bayer Crop Science’s recent DEKALB conference at the Riverside Sun in Vanderbijlpark, where around 150 of South Africa’s largest maize producers gathered. These producers represent approximately a third of the country’s total maize production.
The theme of the conference was how farmers can remain profitable in the midst of economic uncertainty, changing climate conditions and a world market that is increasingly under pressure.
Maize prices under pressure
Dr. Werner Rossouw, director of the grain trading and analysis company Silostrat, explained why South African maize prices are particularly volatile.
Dr. Werner Rossouw, director of the grain trading and analysis company Silostrat. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)
“Given the current market conditions, we have to ask: What now? We are currently sitting with the lowest corn prices since 2021. At the same time, we know that diesel prices will probably increase drastically by next month, and there is also a challenging climate season ahead.”
The average maize price has been between R4 000 and R5 000 per tonne over the past three seasons. “What is striking is that when you look at the last four seasons, the maize price has on average moved between R1 500 and R2 000 per tonne each season. This just shows how big the volatility is in this market.”
According to him, the reason lies largely in South Africa’s production patterns and local demand.
“For domestic consumption, South Africa needs around 12 million tonnes of maize. In addition, we traditionally export around 900,000 tonnes to countries such as Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia and Swaziland (now Eswatini). We also export around half a million tonnes of maize flour annually. This means that South Africa needs around 14 million tonnes of maize in a normal season.”
When the harvest is close to this level, the market stabilizes.
Maize seedlings (Photo: Provided)
Climate cycles play a major role
Rossouw says climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña play a significant role in South Africa’s maize production. “El Niño conditions usually bring drier weather and lower production, while La Niña often produces better rainfall and therefore better harvests.”
He says the country’s production history over the past decade clearly illustrates this.
“If we look at the last ten years, there were only four seasons in which less than 14 million tonnes of maize were harvested – and these were mainly during El Niño conditions. In normal or La Niña years, South Africa can comfortably produce more than 14 million tonnes of maize.”
This fluctuating production leads to large price fluctuations which are a serious challenge for many maize producers.
World flooded with grain
Rossouw also sketched the global picture.
Dr. Werner Rossouw, director of the grain trading and analysis company Silostrat. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)
“Two weeks ago, someone from abroad told us: ‘The world is flooded with grain.’ He specifically referred to maize.” He says world production has increased dramatically.
“Over the past 15 years, world corn production has risen from about 800 million tons to about 1.3 billion tons. In other words, the world is producing about 500 million tons more corn today than 15 years ago.” According to him, the record production is unprecedented. “The ten largest harvests in history were in the last ten years. In other words, the world experienced ten consecutive record years.”
According to Rossouw, geopolitical tensions can also affect prices. “If the conflict continues longer than many people hope, it could lead to a greater focus on corn production in the US. Any movement in US corn prices is quickly also felt locally. Every cent that changes the US corn price means a difference of almost R6 per ton in South Africa.”
Economy is changing fast
The economist Dawie Roodt warned during the conference that the world economy is currently going through profound changes. “The world is changing rapidly; it will never be the same again,” he said.
According to Roodt, many prices are falling internationally, but certain sectors, including the service industry of which agriculture is a part, are still experiencing rising costs. He urged farmers to focus strongly on skills and technology to remain competitive.
Roodt was also critical of the role of the state. “The biggest obstacle to agriculture in South Africa is often the government. But reality has overtaken ideology, so we are seeing increasing privatization and new solutions.
“The political landscape must urgently change if we want to see sustainable economic growth.”
The economist Dawie Roodt warned during the conference that the world economy is currently going through profound changes. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)
American record farmer shares secrets
One of the highlights of the conference was the participation of Kevin Kalb, a fifth-generation farmer from Indiana in the USA and a 25-time winner of the National Corn Growers Association’s yield award.
Kalb shared his experience with producers during a breakfast event. “I believe every farmer should set aside part of his farm – perhaps ten, twenty or thirty acres – where he can experiment with different planting rates and production methods,” he said.
Kevin Kalb, a fifth-generation farmer from Indiana in the USA and a 25-time winner of the National Corn Growers Association’s yield award. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)
According to him, trials are essential to really improve production. “But you can’t just do it for one year. You have to do it over several seasons to really understand what works.”
Kalb says his focus on soil health has played a big role in his success. “We started to focus much more strongly on soil health, especially on the microbes in the soil.” According to Kalb, this has significantly increased his returns.
He also started using less fertilizer. “We gradually used less synthetic fertilizer and developed a low-salt feeding strategy for our crops. This made a big difference in how our soil functions.”
According to Kalb, biological products have improved noticeably over the years and he believes they can increase yields and reduce input costs. Kalb says the secret behind high yields lies not only in fertile soil, but especially in how farmers feed and manage their crops.
Farmers heartbeat of economy
Johan Bibbey, associated with DEKALB at Bayer Crop Science, emphasized how essential partnerships between farmers and agricultural companies are. According to him, it is not simply a transaction, but a relationship built on trust, cooperation and a shared vision for the future.
“Few people really realize the responsibility farmers bear every day to put food on the table of a nation,” says Bibbey. “They do this daily and often this role is underestimated. Farmers are the heartbeat of the agricultural economy, the heartbeat of rural communities and ultimately also the heartbeat of their families.”
Johan Bibbey, attached to DEKALB at Bayer Crop Science. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)
He emphasizes that Bayer focuses on being not only a supplier, but also a long-term partner for producers. “We constantly want to hear from farmers what they need. A true partnership can only work if there is open communication and mutual trust,” he says.
According to Bibbey, innovation plays a key role in this partnership. “We want to be the trusted person who walks the path with you. Bayer and DEKALB are the largest seed and breeding technology companies in the world and the value we can offer farmers is enormous. Through artificial intelligence and new molecular breeding, we can quickly bring this seed technology to farmers to create even more value for their production.”
Farmers worldwide face the same challenges
Maria Vnuchkova, who recently moved from Russia to South Africa to work as Bayer Crop Science’s Africa head of customer marketing, said during the conference that farmers in major grain markets such as the US, Russia and Canada perform surprisingly similarly to commercial farmers in South Africa.
“Whether you farm on 500 ha or 500,000 ha – weather conditions, diseases and pests do not care about your location or the size of your farm. We all look at the same clouds and wonder if the rain will come on time. The challenges may differ in scope, but they are essentially very similar and test our resilience.”
Maria Vnuchkova, Bayer Crop Science’s Africa Head of Customer Marketing. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)
She further emphasized that cooperation is the key to the future of agriculture.
“Today’s global market is challenging, but it also offers exciting new opportunities for all farmers around the world. What we build in collaboration today prepares us for the challenges of tomorrow.”
“The world market is challenging, but it also holds new opportunities for farmers. The most important thing we can do for the future is to build strong cooperation today.”
Maria Vnuchkova and Kevin Kalb. (Photo: Janice du Plessis/Maroela Media)