South Africa may import significant amounts of white maize, used to make a staple food, for the first time since 2017 as the El Niño weather pattern withers the crop.
Dry and unseasonably hot weather that’s persisted across much of the country so far this year has slashed forecasts for the size of the harvest. The government’s Crop Estimates Committee on Tuesday cut its outlook for the white-maize crop by 11% to 6.28 million tons, while the overall take that includes the yellow variety is projected at a five-year low of 13.3 million tons.
If the dry weather persists, the harvest will fall further as the plants are currently pollinating and need the moisture, said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
“If white maize is lowered further we may have to import, which would be the first time since the last tough drought,” he said in a response to queries. The reason our crop is down is purely the El Niño-induced drought.”
The potential shortage of white maize compared with yellow maize, which is readily available internationally, is seeing the yellow variety trade at a 20% discount to the white variety on the South Africa Futures Exchange in Johannesburg, whereas a year ago they were about the same price. That’s a record spread between the two prices.
The generic first future for white maize closed trade at R5 340 rand per ton on Wednesday, while yellow maize traded at R4 293. White maize has gained 37% over the past year, while the yellow variety has risen 5.5%.
Central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago cited the inflation risk posed by El Niño as one of the reason for keeping interest rates at a 15-year high on Wednesday.
The weather phenomenon, which causes oceans to warm, usually triggers drier weather in southern Africa, reducing crop yields and pushing temperatures higher. La Niña, which usually follows El Niño periods, results in the opposite.
The white variety of the grain, used to make maize meal known locally as pap, is eaten across southern Africa, while much of the rest of the world relies on the yellow type, which South Africans use for animal feed. The country is usually Africa’s biggest exporter.
That means in times of shortage, the southern African region has to rely mainly on Mexico and the US for imports. While yellow maize can be used as a substitute, it meets consumer resistance. Dry weather has also slashed crops in other southern African countries.
In the 2016-17 agricultural season, which runs to the end of April, South Africa imported 644,144 tons of white maize from the two north American nations, according to South African Grain Information Service data. Aside from 7,583 tons bought from Zambia in the 2021-22 season, it hasn’t imported white maize since.
South Africa’s maize production may improve next season, Sihlobo said.
“Toward the end of the season, from around about July, we will transition from an El Nino into a La Nina period,” he said. “Which is why some of us in South Africa are hopeful that the current drought will be short-lived.”
