(Archive photo)
Eskom does not plan to implement load shedding this winter.
“Based on current assumptions, no load shedding is expected for the winter of 2026,” Clive le Roux, independent non-executive director of Eskom, announced on Wednesday.
This is provided that unplanned losses remain below 14,000 megawatts, he explained, pointing out that unplanned losses of around 12,000 megawatts are currently the most likely scenario this winter.
“Planned maintenance is stable and the system enters the winter with a healthy reserve margin,” Le Roux confirmed at a media conference on Wednesday.
The media conference was convened so that Eskom could share its winter outlook for the period from 1 April to 31 August with the public.
“We are at the stage where electricity is guaranteed,” said Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the minister of electricity and energy, at the media conference on Wednesday.
“Electricity is available.”
Le Roux said on Wednesday that Eskom wants to be transparent about the state of the power grid: “…where we are, what has changed and what South Africans can reasonably expect over the coming winter and beyond,” he explained.
“The electricity system has shown substantial and measurable improvements over the past year. Eskom’s energy availability factor has risen from approximately 55% in 2023 to just over 65% in the 2026 financial year.
“It has also exceeded 70% on more than 80 days in the past year.
“Unplanned outages reduced an average of 16.5 gigawatts of unavailable plant to around 9.4 gigawatts.
“To date, South Africa has experienced more than 340 consecutive days without load shedding, with diesel consumption reducing by more than 60% year on year.”
Le Roux believes these outcomes reflect Eskom’s sustained execution of the generation recovery plan as well as improved outage planning, stronger technical discipline and focused leadership throughout the organization.
“Eskom will nevertheless continue to operate the system cautiously and conservatively, recognizing the inherent risks of a large and complex power system,” Le Roux said on Wednesday.
Stock Photo (Photo: Shutterstock)
‘No loadshedding should not be news’
Ramokgopa said at the media conference on Wednesday that the fact that there will be no load shedding this winter should not really make the news – because there must always be electricity.
“The winter outlook is not breaking news and it shouldn’t be,” explained the minister.
“We are going to get to a point where the fact that there is no load shedding will no longer make the headlines.
“Eskom’s board should not announce that there is no load shedding. Because there should not be load shedding in the first place.”
However, the minister believes that Eskom is showing good progress and moving in the right direction.
“We should now switch to other issues that require our urgent attention.
“Electricity is now available, but we know that electricity is not affordable. This is something that requires our collective attention.”