News24 will publish a daily tracker of political party support until election day on 29 May. Produced by the Social Research Foundation, the tracker provides up-to-date insight into the shifting political temperature of voters.
On 29 May, democratic South Africa will go to the polls for a seventh time since 1994 to elect a new government for the country and its nine provinces.
For political parties and independent candidates contesting the election, the last weeks and days leading to the polls are critical. Many voters remain undecided on who to vote for, and the support levels of parties fluctuate with major developments, announcements and/or advertising campaigns.
To monitor this changing voter support, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) has built a tracking tool to provide daily insights into the political temperature of the electorate. It uses the results of a baseline survey of 1 835 geographically representative, registered voters conducted by the foundation in April this year.
The survey was conducted telephonically.
READ| IN-DEPTH: Election polls are not the gospel but are important for a snapshot of where we are going
Each day, 200 new participants are added to the poll and 200 of the oldest participants are removed. The SRF emphasises that the tracking tool does not constitute a prediction or forecast of the outcome of the election. Rather it provides a snapshot in real time of voter sentiment. It helps track what and how different issues may impact a party’s election campaigns.
The SRF is a think tank set up in 2021. Its board of directors is chaired by Frans Cronje, the former director of the Institute of Race Relations.
The tool also models for low, medium and high voter turnout scenarios (from 56% to 66% turnout). News24 is not associated with the SRF, but we believe the scientifically sound tool is valuable to assess the mood of the electorate in the run-up to the 2024 election – which is the most contested since 1994, and also the most unpredictable.
These graphs will be updated daily as the data becomes available.
