Provincial education depts will need at least R79bn more by 2027 to fund programmes, says Gwarube

• Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube told a media briefing in Pretoria on Wednesday that the country faced a pending national crisis.
• Gwarube said that provincial education departments will, in the next two to three years, find it increasingly difficult to fund their existing basket of teacher posts.
• She said that the above-inflation salary increases given to public servants has rendered the public wage bill unaffordable.

The nine provincial education departments will need an extra projected minimum of R79 billion and a maximum of R118 billion by 2027 to fund programmes, including paying teachers’ salaries.

This was the dire warning sounded by Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube at a media briefing in Pretoria on Wednesday who said that the country faced a pending national crisis.

“Provincial education departments will in the next two to three years find it increasingly difficult to fund their existing basket of teacher posts and existing programmes within the available budget, unless measures are taken proactively to mitigate this risk,” she said.

Gwarube said that, between April 2025 and March 2026, four provincial education departments would battle to cover their budgets and that five provinces would face the same fate between April 2026 and March 2027.

The minister added that seven provinces would battle to cover their budgets between April 2027 and March 2028.

“It is crucial to understand that this crisis is not confined to one province or one aspect of the education sector. Every province is grappling with these painful choices.”

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Gwarube has requested an urgent meeting with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to discuss the matter further.

She said that several provinces had preserved the same post basket for the past three academic years, despite pupil numbers increasing, while other provinces had decreased their posts in the past three years.

She added:

The Western Cape government announced recently that it would be reducing its teacher post basket by 2 400.

Gwarube said the financial pressures had been years in the making because of aggressive budget cuts, economic stagnation and fiscal mismanagement across government, and that this was now set to affect schools.

“These budget pressures are not just numbers on a spreadsheet, they translate into fewer teachers, reduced textbooks, and fewer administrative support staff, which means teachers spend more time on administrative work, thereby reducing learning and teaching time.”

She said, in essence, “the very fabric of our children’s future is under threat”.

“In provinces like the Western Cape, we’ve already seen the painful decision to reduce the basket of teaching posts for 2025, a move that may result in fewer educators in classrooms,” the minister added.

“This may mean larger class sizes, reduced individual attention for learners, and, ultimately, a risk to the achievement of quality education outcomes.”

Navigating budgets

She said that, unfortunately, other provinces in the country were in a similar position, with many desperately working to find ways of avoiding having to top slice budgets for key services like textbooks, administrative support and scholar transport programmes.

Gwarube said that she and Deputy Basic Education Minister Reginah Mhaule had been in constant engagement with provinces to support them “during this challenging fiscal environment”.

“We have committed ourselves to doing everything we can to stabilise (the) system and have appealed to provinces to retain the basket of posts, in order to not compromise education outcomes,” she said.

Nationally, the number of pupils within the education system have increased by approximately 292 820 over the last five years.

“Learner/educator ratios have also steadily increased across most provinces. An increase in learner numbers without increasing the post basket, may affect the quality of teaching which may soon be reflected in the performance of the system,” the minister said.

She added that the financial constraints had had the largest impact on educator provisioning, leading to a steady increase in pupil/teacher ratios in most provincial education departments.

“Most provincial education departments require between R350 million and R3.8 billion [over the medium-term expenditure framework to fully fund their respective basket of posts].

“The numbers are staggering. If we continue down this path, projections indicate that most provincial education departments will not be able to maintain their respective basket of posts.”

Declining economy

Gwarube said that “we must look back and acknowledge that as government, we have not made the right choices at the right time which has brought us to this point”.

“First and foremost, our economy has been stagnant for nearly a decade,” she added.

“Moreover, our spending priorities need re-alignment. Between 2013 and 2023, the government spent R331 billion bailing out state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This figure is staggering, especially when you consider the opportunity cost. R331 billion could have been directed to critical sectors such as education, healthcare, and economic infrastructure development.

“Instead, it has been funnelled into SOEs that continue to underperform, dragging down our economy and draining public resources.”

The minister said that wasteful expenditure and corruption had further hollowed out state coffers.

“Between 2014 and 2023, South Africa lost an estimated R1.5 trillion in economic value to corruption, money that should have been used to build schools, pay teachers, and improve learning conditions. Instead, it has lined the pockets of a few at the expense of many.”

She also alluded to the “unsustainable increases in the public wage bill”.

“Over the past 15 years, public sector salary increases have consistently outpaced inflation, with some years seeing increases as high as 8%-10%.

“While we must fairly compensate public servants, these above-inflation increases have rendered the public wage bill unaffordable, accounting for nearly 35% of government spending. This leaves little room for investment in key sectors like education.”

Meeting key players

Gwarube said she convened two special meetings of the Council of Education Ministers (CEM) which brought together education MECs from across the country.

“We conducted a thorough analysis of the budget challenges in each province. MECs from every province have compiled provisional provincial reports with sobering results.

“For the first time in a decade, we now have a clearer picture of where the most significant budget pressures lie and how we need to engage treasury in a bid to address the challenges we see.”

The minister has also requested a convening of a political 10X10 meeting between Godongwana and the provincial MECs for Finance, as well as between herself and the nine education MECs.

“We must work together with all 10 treasuries to unlock additional funds to alleviate the pressures facing the education sector, even if it is for the short term, and to prevent further cuts to teaching posts and critical support services like school nutrition and transport.”

She said there was also a need to look at cross-departmental reprioritisation of budgets from departments that have under-performing programmes to ensure that funding across government is directed to appropriate national priorities.

“A well-educated population is the foundation of a prosperous, competitive, and innovative economy. Without it, we cannot hope to address our unemployment crisis or compete in the global economy.”

Gwarube said that in the long term, policies that prioritised education as a national imperative needed to be adopted.

“This means that education should receive a larger share of the national budget, ensuring that we have enough teachers, quality infrastructure, and adequate resources for every pupil.”