Petrol and diesel prices are currently on track for more steep cuts at the start of October, which could push fuel prices to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
The latest estimate from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that the price of 95 unleaded petrol is due for a decrease of R1.26 around a litre, while the wholesale price of diesel could be lowered by around R1.10 a litre. Final prices will only be fixed at the end of September.
At the start of this month, petrol and diesel prices were cut by around a rand a litre.
While there are still two weeks left to go, the current forecasted cuts would lower the price of 95 unleaded petrol in Gauteng to below R21 for the first time in 31 months. At the current estimate, coastal petrol prices may fall to around R20.20.
Gauteng diesel prices may fall to around R18.50 a litre at the current estimate, and at the coast, to R17.70 — also the lowest levels since February 2022.
The invasion of Ukraine caused supply chain disruptions and restricted imports of Russian crude oil, which pushed oil prices to multi-year highs.
But oil has been under pressure of late, with Brent crude oil futures falling below $70 for the first time since 2021. This is due to concerns about weaker demand from the US and China due to economic slowdowns, along with strong output growth from oil producers that are not members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (which has been cutting production).
South African fuel prices are also determined by the rand exchange rate, as oil is priced in dollars. The rand is currently trading around its best levels since mid-2023 ahead of an expected steep cut in US rates this week, which would make the dollar less appealing to investors wanting to earn interest on their cash.
The final fuel prices for October will only be set at the end of September. Fuel prices will be adjusted on the first Wednesday of next month.
