Markets betting a deal will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and soothe the deep global economic uncertainty cast by the closure of the vital oil & gas route.
Published On 27 May 2026
The United States stock market has been hovering near record highs and oil prices have plunged amid new hope that a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran is close.
The rally came on Wednesday as negotiations continued between Washington and Tehran, with markets betting that a deal would reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, easing oil and gas supply concerns and soothing the deep uncertainty afflicting the global economy.
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Oil prices declined sharply after Iran’s state broadcaster said it had obtained a preliminary document outlining a framework for a potential deal.
The price of US crude fell 5.5 percent to settle at $88.68, while Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, decreased to $92 after prices traded above $100 last week.
The report suggested that Iran would allow traffic through the strait at pre-war levels within 30 days. It added that the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Prices remained subdued even after the White House dismissed the report as a “complete fabrication”.
The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent and added to its all-time high set the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 243 points, or 0.5 percent, with an hour remaining in trading, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1 percent higher.
Wednesday is far from the first time markets have rallied amid reports of a possible end to the war, only to slump once more as negotiations fail to deliver a resolution.
However, the strength of the current surge reflects statements over the past week that suggest the two parties may be closer than ever to reaching a deal.
President Donald Trump said during a cabinet meeting on Wednesday that US officials were not yet satisfied with the agreement, “but we will be”.
“I think they’re starting to give us the things that they have to give us,” he said. “And if they do, that’s great, and if they won’t, then the man on my left will have to finish them off,” he said, pointing at Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Sticking points
It remains unclear whether the two parties have come to an understanding on the major sticking points, including the fate of about 440 kilogrammes (970lbs) of highly enriched uranium; Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, which the US has long insisted it wants to see dismantled in its entirety; Tehran’s ballistic missiles and its support for armed groups in the region.
It is also not clear whether a halt in hostilities in Lebanon would be part of a deal. Iranian officials have repeatedly said that any agreement would have to include that. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week ordered the Israeli military to step up its attacks against Hezbollah.
There are also questions on whether Washington would agree to lift its sanctions against Iran and release millions in frozen assets.