Explosions in Tehran. (Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP
War modeling suggests that the current pace of conflict in the Middle East may be sustainable for just ten more days.
Prof. Barend Prinsloo, director of the Center for Geopolitical Security and Strategy at the North-West University (NWU), believes that there are currently three scenarios that can determine how the conflict in the region will finally unfold.
Scenario 1: Ten more days of conflict
The current ten-day estimate is based on uncertain inventory calculations: how many rockets Iran still has versus how many missile interceptors Israel and the US can still deploy.
“Iran’s Shahed drone inventory may still be in the tens of thousands,” says Prinsloo.
“The opening wave of attacks shows the extent of the American role. Reports mention more than 100 aircraft flying as a coordinated unit, while the US Central Command post states that more than a thousand targets were hit in the first 24 hours. It can be difficult to maintain that pace and missile interceptor stocks are slow to replace,” explains Prinsloo.
“If major salvos continue, the US and Israel will face difficult trade-offs unless allies add major defense capacity.
Prof. Barend Prinsloo, director of the Center for Geopolitical Security and Strategy at North-West University. (Photo: Provided)
“Regionally and among Brics+ countries, Iran appears increasingly isolated as it continues ‘retaliatory’ missile and drone strikes on several Gulf states.”
Prinsloo says the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an example of how quickly ties between countries can deteriorate.
This country took part in Brics+ naval exercises in South African territorial waters in January this year, but is now being attacked by Iran. Similarly, recent moves suggest that the US and Israel are less aligned with some of their partners including the UK, Spain and France.
“In this scenario, Iran, the US and Israel will see their offensive and defensive capabilities deteriorate and without external support, the conflict will degenerate into sporadic skirmishes.
“Regime change in this scenario is unlikely.”
Scenario 2: Iranian regime survives
The second scenario relates to the possibility of delaying Iranian regime change with the appointment of a new supreme leader.
The Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was already killed early in the US-Israeli attacks.
Prinsloo explains that the new supreme leader must be an Islamic cleric.
However, it is now being claimed that the leading cleric, Alireza Arafi, may have been killed following this week’s attack on the so-called assembly of experts building in Qom, south of Tehran, where clerics had gathered to elect a new supreme leader.
“If this is confirmed, Israel may be trying to prevent a quick succession that could stabilize the system and create space for diplomacy, even if that outcome is not guaranteed,” says Prinsloo.
Photo to illustrate Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Photo: MOHD RASFAN / AFP)
Scenario 3: Regime Change in Iran (US achieves its objective)
“If the regime is overthrown within ten days, there will be few viable successor options left and democracy is unlikely to emerge immediately,” explains Prinsloo.
The US has already signaled its skepticism that Reza Pahlavi can rule Iran and has yet to identify any other credible alternative leader.
Pahlavi is the son of the last Iranian shah and one of the main leaders of the opposition to the Iranian regime.
“In this third scenario, Iran would be left with a severely weakened navy and fragmented internal armed forces. History suggests that such forces tend to coalesce over time and form armed factions that could lead to Iran’s descent into a protracted internal conflict for control of the state.”
“This scenario implies that Operation Epic Fury is more likely to cause ‘regime destruction’ than ‘regime change’.”
The conflict continues. Smoke rises from Beirut on Wednesday after an Israeli airstrike. (Photo: IBRAHIM AMRO / AFP
Impact on SA
If the ten-day scenario materializes, South Africa’s historically close political and corporate alignment with Iran could begin to count against it, Prinsloo believes. “Especially as Washington frames the conflict around proliferation and defense supply chains.”
It has long been alleged that MTN obtained its Iranian operating license between 2004 and 2005 by pledging South Africa’s support for Iran’s nuclear program at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa served as MTN’s non-executive chairman during this period.
Prinsloo says the withdrawal of former foreign minister Naledi Pandor’s US visa in December indicates targeted pressure.
“The US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025 seeks to review and potentially impose sanctions on South African officials and leaders of the ANC over concerns about alignment with Russia, China and Iran.
“President Donald Trump also cited Pretoria’s ties to Tehran as justification for imposing 30% tariffs on South African goods.”
Prinsloo believes the most immediate impact on South Africa will probably be higher energy prices and disruptions in the supply of fuel.
“Over time, the greater risk may lie in political and financial exposure if South Africa is seen as an exception in its ties with Tehran while the US appears prepared to apply punitive measures.”
Naledi Pander, then foreign minister, and Hassan Rouhani, former president. of Iran, during a state visit in 2019. (Photo: AFP)