DA Congress | These are the issues that some will have to deal with

The criticism surrounding John Steenhuisen as Minister of Agriculture is certainly currently one of the DA’s biggest challenges. However, it is highly unlikely that Steenhuisen’s future as minister in the government of national unity (RNE) will be decided in front of almost 2,200 party members this weekend.

“You never deal with personnel matters externally. So I don’t think there will be any talk about Steenhuisen’s position,” says prof. André Duvenhage, political analyst, on the eve of the DA’s triennial federal congress.

However, this does not mean that Steenhuisen’s position will not be discussed in the corridors of the Gallagher Conference Centre.

“I suspect Steenhuisen was asked behind the scenes not to stand as federal leader again,” says Duvenhage. “You can’t fight two wars, and in the end he lost both.

“So, I think he’s in danger.”

Duvenhage, as well as prof. Theo Neethling, lecturer in local and global politics at Akademia, suspects that Steenhuisen will soon be replaced as minister of agriculture.

However, both believe that this will happen after the party’s new leadership is announced.

“I don’t think the DA is going to wait until after the local elections,” Duvenhage said in the run-up to this weekend’s congress.

John Steenhuisen will step down as federal leader of the DA this weekend. (Photo: PHILL MAGAKOE / AFP)

Hill-Lewis a done deal?

Duvenhage and Neethling both think it is already a fairly foregone conclusion that Geordin Hill-Lewis will be the DA’s new federal leader.

“I think we can only accept that it will be Geordin Hill-Lewis. The other candidate really doesn’t stand a chance as far as I’m concerned,” says Neethling.

Duvenhage believes that this was already clear when no other emerging leader in the DA – such as Cilliers Brink or Chris Papas – threw their names into the hat.

“The fact that no one has come forward strongly to oppose him tells me that he is going to make it.”

However, it is not yet clear who will be elected as chairman and deputy chairmen this weekend.

“Those in the party will probably be able to tell you who the favorites are,” says Duvenhage. “But I know of no one who can say with great certainty that they should be elected this weekend. This tells me that a legitimate democratic process is underway here.

“I think the DA can rightly claim that they are a well-organized machine that is managed on a sound basis and principles. And I think we will see that this weekend.”

Geordin Hill-Lewis is probably the favorite to be elected federal leader this weekend. (Photo: AFP)

‘New generation’ on the way

Helen Zille will step down as chairman of the federal council and John Steenhuisen as federal leader this weekend.

“The party is therefore going through a phase of great renewal. There is a new generation in the party that is starting to emerge,” says Duvenhage.

However, he points out that the DA may be a liberal party that has a liberal-democratic policy, “but they are very conservative in terms of their structure”.

He is of the opinion that Zille and other big names in the DA will continue to be actively involved – just in the background.

“I’m talking here about people like Tony Leon and Helen Zille; senior role players in the DA, historically speaking. They are going behind the scenes to prepare the new leadership for the way forward. This is how I read the situation.

“It will bring an element of continuity, more or less like what Rassie (Erasmus) is trying to achieve with the Springboks,” Duvenhage believes.

Support pla

However, the experts do not think that the DA is currently as strong in terms of support as the party wants or can be.

The latest opinion polls place the ANC’s support nationwide at between 30 and 35% and that of the DA at between 22% and 25%.

“My feeling is that at the moment it is closer to 22% than 25%,” says Duvenhage.

“We saw in the by-elections that the DA ceded support to the FF Plus, especially in Tshwane. And this has a lot to do with the absolute fiasco that John Steenhuisen caused as minister of agriculture.

“And remember, if you touch the farmers, you touch the Afrikaner almost directly.

“So I’m not 100% convinced that the electorate will completely go back to voting the way they voted in the past.”

Archive photo of Helen Zille. (Photo: Phill Magakoe / AFP)

Duvenhage is not convinced that the FF Plus is necessarily right to capture the DA’s lost votes. “The FF Plus has its own set of challenges. But there is some uncertainty among voters who have voted automatically in the past.”

Duvenhage also believes that the DA is faced with a similar (if not greater) challenge when it comes to colored voters. “The brown community is developing an identity and that identity is beginning to lean more and more towards the Patriotic Alliance.

“You could also see it clearly in the by-elections, in the Western Cape and parts of the Southern Cape.

“The DA will therefore have to manage this double identity factor. This is a big challenge.”

Neethling suggests that this weekend the DA also pays attention to its support without black voters and the expansion of support in provinces other than the Western Cape.

“To get more than 22% you will still have to get black support in the other provinces. The question is: How is the DA going to do this? I think these are the issues that will certainly have to be discussed.

“The DA will have to expand its support base outside the Western Cape.”

RNE on the agenda?

The debate surrounding the DA’s participation in the government of national unity is an ongoing debate and the DA will probably at some stage have to take stock of what it has achieved within the RNE.

“We may see drastic decisions under a new leadership, because just as Steenhuisen underperformed in his portfolio, the DA is generally not doing so well in the RNE,” Duvenhage believes.

The two experts here single out Leon Schreiber as Minister of the Interior.

“Schreiber has done an excellent job so far. What he is currently managing in internal affairs is for me on the same level as Pieter Groenewald of the FF Plus is managing in correctional services,” says Duvenhage.

John Steenhuisen during the DA’s previous federal congress in 2023. (Photo: MICHELE SPATARI / AFP)

“However, the problem is that Schreiber is not as big a DA name as Steenhuisen. People look at the DA’s participation in the RNE via John Steenhuisen as they look at the FF Plus’s participation via Pieter Groenewald.

“This is something the DA will have to look into.

However, Neethling believes it will be a mistake for the DA to withdraw from the RNE now.

“Some of the DA’s ministers are not doing too badly at all.”

And being a cabinet minister also has certain advantages, he says. “You have eyes and ears… If you withdraw yourself, you no longer have them.”

• The DA’s federal congress takes place on the Gallagher estate in Midrand on Saturday and Sunday. Keep an eye on Maroela Media this weekend for live coverage.